2008-2009 Season

Bubble Notes: 3/2/09

Michigan is right on the outside of many of today’s bracketology updates after their loss in Madison. They are the second to last team out by both Lunardi and Crashing the Dance. Like I said on Friday, these “brackets” are essentially who’s hot right now reports. Luckily the season doesn’t end today. The best case scenario for Michigan is to sit back this week and watch other teams falter and then beat Minnesota.

The Resume

  • Record: 18-12 (8-9)
  • RPI: 48
  • SOS: 9
  • RPI Top 50: 5-9
  • RPI 50-100: 4-2
  • RPI 100+: 7-1
  • Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
  • Bad losses: Iowa
  • Last 10: 4-6

The resume doesn’t change much besides a small drop in the RPI (46 to 48) as well as Iowa falling out of the top 100. Iowa’s fall makes the Iowa game a “bad loss” and also gets rid of one of our top 100 wins. It’s safe to say that Michigan fans need to be rooting for Iowa this week when they play Penn State and Ohio State.

The strengths of the Michigan resume include quality wins over top 50 and top 100 opponents and strength of schedule. 9 top 100 wins and 5 top 50 wins are very good numbers for any bubble team. Michigan’s strength of schedule also rivals most other teams on the bubble. The biggest weakness is Michigan’s 3-8 road record, this is the chink in Michigan’s armor but a win at the Barn would be the perfect cure.

Links

Competition

Here is a list of fellow bubble teams and what they have on deck this week. This is essentially the hit list, the teams that you want to root against. Sorted by RPI (in parenthesis).

  • Texas A&M (35): Tues @Colorado (229), Sat vs Missouri (13)
  • Minnesota (37): Weds vs. Wisconsin (31), Sat vs Michigan (48)
  • Creighton (39): Root for Creighton to win their conference tournament.
  • Georgetown (40): Tues @ St Johns (147), Sat vs DePaul (202)
  • Miami (44): Tues @GTech (159), Sat vs NC State (100)
  • San Diego State (46): Weds vs Col State (191), Sat vs UNLV (51)
  • Arizona (47): Thurs vs. Cal (36), Sat vs. Stanford (111)
  • Florida (50): Weds @ Miss St (88), Sat vs. Kentucky (66)
  • UNLV (51): Tues vs. Air Force (283), Sat @ SDSU (46)
  • Maryland (52): Tues vs. Wake Forest (17), Sat @ Virginia (110)
  • Cincinnati (53): Tues @USF (176), Sat vs Seton Hall (107)
  • Virginia Tech (59): Weds vs UNC (3), Sun @ FSU (16)
  • Penn State (64): Weds vs. Ill (19), Sat @Iowa (106)
  • Kansas State (73): Tues @Ok St (30), Sat vs Colorado (229)
  • Kentucky (66): Tues vs Georgia (204), Sat @ Florida (50) — *I have no idea how Lunardi has Kentucky as a 10 seed right now.
  • Providence (68): Thurs @ Villanova (15)
  • Notre Dame (69): Mon vs Villanova (15), Fri vs. St Johns (147)

Comparisons

The more I look at the Michigan resume the more I think it is almost identical to Arizona’s resume last year.ร‚ย  It is a different year so there are clearly different circumstances but if that Arizona team made the dance there is no doubt in my mind that Michigan deserves to make the dance.

There also aren’t many teams on the bubble with as many quality wins as Michigan. Boston College, UNLV, Georgetown, Penn State, and Kentucky are the only ones that come close.

The Big Ten is in a very interesting situation, there are so many teams on the bubble that we could see anywhere from six to eight bids. The committee doesn’t pick teams by conferences but it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and even Ohio State will all have their chances to play themselves in or out this week.

Overall I think the situation remains pretty much unchanged for Michigan. Beat Minnesota and win the Thursday game of the Big Ten tournament and Michigan will put themselves in a very good position on Selection Sunday. Lose to Minnesota and they probably need to make it to the championship game or at the very least the semi-finals.

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