I definitely think so. Let’s go down the schedule and take the 6 most likely wins, per KenPom. That’s Ohio State, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin — all better than a 45% chance according to KenPom’s metrics.
If Michigan wins those 6 games to finish 10-8, it would have 11 top-100 wins and probably 4 or 5 top-50 wins depending on how the numbers shake out. Last year Michigan had 4 wins over top-50 teams and 1 additional top-100 win. Because of the decent, but unspectacular midsection of the Big Ten, there are plenty of opportunities for solid wins in the top-100. At this point, Michigan just has to go out and win them.
Even at 9-9 in conference, depending on how they got there, the Wolverines could have a pretty strong tournament resume that would probably require only a bit of solidification in Washington DC.
Is Beilein ball too complicated? Seems like too much thinking out there… And basic fundamentals are getting overlooked
— ron boogs (@rboogs) January 31, 2017
In a word, no. Michigan’s offense is currently leading the Big Ten at 1.16 points per possession and it is ranked 11th nationally. The offense is complicated, but it is also consistently very efficient. Michigan’s roster is light on pros and might lack a true go-to player, but it is still humming along just fine.
Is it perfect? No, but it is far from the most important concerns that the Wolverines are facing.
I could start to buy into the argument that it can be hard for freshmen to transition into Beilein’s offense (see: Darius Morris, Xavier Simpson), but I think that phenomenon has as much to do with the difficulty of playing point guard as a freshman as anything else. We’ve also seen freshmen step right in and play great from their first agme.
As far as fundamentals, I can tell you with the utmost certainty that John Beilein has spent more time in practices on basic fundamentals than most other coaches in the country.
Do you think there is a chance Teske replaces Donnal? What does Donnal bring to the table anymore that Teske can't make up for?
— Jake Grubbs (@JakeGrubbs1) January 31, 2017
Donnal is shooting 68% on twos and 55% on threes in limited playing time. He’s still a solid finisher and roll man in the ball screen game and he’s hit a three in each of the last two games. Is he frustrating to watch at times? Sure. Does he have an oddly stoic facial expression most of the time? Yep. Is he a more reliable option to play 10 minutes per game off the bench? Yep.
Teske is still very raw. He has great length and knows how to backtap an offensive rebound, but he’s still learning on both ends of the floor. He’s made 1 out of 6 shot attempts this year and doesn’t give Michigan as much on the offensive end of the floor.
It’s easy to say that the next option would be better just because you are frustrated with the current one and haven’t seen the new, but I’m just not sure we’ve seen enough from Teske to prove that he’d be a better option than Donnal.
Beilein has addressed this and said that Irvin said that he could go and they thought that he would move the ball better than other options. Michigan’s roster isn’t loaded with depth to begin with and Abdur-Rahkman’s foul trouble compounded the matter.
Robinson played 30 minutes in the game (14 in the second half) and that’s the most he’s played in a 40 minute game this year. Abdur-Rahkman didn’t play quite as much, but that’s because he was battling foul trouble.
How concerning is Ibi Watson's lack of playing time/development?
— Jeff Goulash (@JeffGoulash) January 31, 2017
Watson has played only 76 minutes this season and clearly isn’t ready to make an impact. He’s also just 1-of-18 from three-point range.
I understand not redshirting Watson because there just isn’t much other wing depth available, but this year is going to look like a redshirt year in his development cycle.
The good news for Watson is that next year is going to be basically open season for wing minutes after Zak Irvin’s departure. Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews is obviously a key player in that equation, but Watson should have the opportunity to crack the wing rotation next year. He’ll also have the leg up with a year of experience compared to incoming freshmen like Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers and Eli Brooks.
I’m not ready to give up on Watson because he’s been unable to crack a wing rotation that features a senior and a redshirt junior, but next year will be a make or break year for where he’ll fit in.
Champions: Beilein said that MSU has better depth than we do, which I thought was strange since they have two guys out with injuries and are playing former walk on Van Dyk. If true, is it because they recruited better players (even the walkons), have developed them better or because they have given them more game experience (even if that was out of necessity)?
Michigan State plays its bench a lot, but its bench is Alvin Ellis, Kenny Goins, Matt McQuaid, Cassius Winston and Matt Van Dyk. Tom Izzo prefers to play a lot of guys and that’s just how he operates, but if you gave John Beilein that same roster I’d almost guarantee that many of the core guys would playing significantly more minutes and the bench would see less.
Michigan’s transfer last offseason (Chatman, Doyle, Dawkins) eliminated much of that bench as the freshmen class has largely been unable to produce at this point.
Michigan State’s 2016 class was clearly better than Michigan’s. The Wolverine freshmen made no impact on Sunday as Michigan State’s won the game. But I’m not really sure I’d chalk up the loss to ‘depth’ as some have. For Michigan, it’s all about its core group playing well — outside of Walton they didn’t.
manny.michigan1: In your opinion, how have the new assistant coaches done in their first year?
Evaluating the performance of assistant coaches is always tough. At the end of the day, the bulk of the credit or blame for just about anything that happens in a program going to fall on the head coach and the players.
It’s also usually easier to give assistant coaches credit when you know that they were specifically involved in something, but it’s not like the media sits in on practice every day to see the minutiae of what is going on.
Through 22 games this year, Michigan’s defense has been worse than last year. Is that something that you can blame on Billy Donlon? No, that wouldn’t be fair to him because he’s not making every call. Certain elements of Michigan’s defense have changed, but he’s not a miracle worker.
Both new hires have also already made an impact on the recruiting trail, one of their most important tasks.
So right now, I’d say they are doing their jobs and making positive impacts, but am just not sure it’s possible for assistant coaches to make some sort of seismic shift in a few months.
JBlair52: BIG 10 POY & COY if the season were over mid-way?
I feel like everyone expects Chris Collins to win the Coach of the Year award if he gets Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament, but I’d go with Mark Turgeon right now. Turgeon has taken the third-youngest team in the league to a 20-2 (8-1) start and he’s already won 5 conference road games.
Player of the Year comes down to Ethan Happ or Caleb Swanigan and I can see an argument either way. I’d probably go with Swanigan right now because he’s a bit more versatile and his rebounding numbers are incredible. But if Wisconsin wins the league, it might be hard to reject Happ for the title.