Michigan picked 11th in “official unofficial” Big Ten poll (and a breakdown of my ballot)

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The official unofficial Big Ten poll of conference media members was released today, and Michigan was picked to finish 11th in the conference.

Purdue was picked to win the league with 24 of 28 first-place votes and 388 points overall. Michigan State (4) also received first-place votes and was selected second.

A full writer-by-writer breakdown of the polling results can be found here. The “official unofficial” poll exists because the conference’s official media poll doesn’t release a complete ranking of teams. Adam Jardy of the Colmbus Dispatch and Brendan Quinn of The Athletic conduct the poll which features two beat writers to represent each of the 14 teams in the league.

Here’s a rundown of where each poll participant voted for Michigan:

• 6th: Couch
• 7th: Carmin
• 8th: Ben Jones
• 9th: Osterman, Fonseca, Burkhardt, McCleary, Potrykus
• 10th: Siegel, Austin, Tachman, Leistikow, Moore
• 11th: Stevens, Bozich, Carino, David Jones, Neubert, Werner, Landis, Fuller
• 12th: Quinn, Richey, Jardy, Greenberg, Cervantes, Washut
• 13th: James

The panel named Zach Edey Preseason Player of the Year and received 27 of 28 votes. Michigan State guard Tyson Walker also received one Player of the Year vote from the panel.

The All-Big Ten First Team features Edey, Jahmir Young, Terrence Shannon Jr., Tyson Walker, and Boo Buie. The second team includes Clifford Omoruyi, AJ Hoggard, Ace Baldwin, Keisei Tominaga, and Coleman Hawkins.

An additional 22 players in the league received at least one vote for All-Big Ten honors, reiterating that the difference between 2nd Team All-Big Ten and the rest of the conference is minuscule.

Penn State guard Ace Baldwin took home Transfer of the Year honors with 14 of 28 votes. Olivier Nkamhoua (6), Jamison Battle (4), Kel’el Ware (2), and AJ Storr (2) also received votes for best incoming transfer.

Indiana wing Mackenzie Mgbako won Freshman of the Year with 19 votes. Maryland’s DeShawn Harris-Smith (5), Michigan State’s Xavier Booker (2), Purdue’s Myles Colvin (1), and Ohio State’s Scotty Middleton (1) also received votes.

The complete predicted order of finish is as follows (first-place votes in parenthesis)

Standings (first-place votes in parenthesis)

1. Purdue, 388 (24)
2. Michigan State, 368 (4)
3. Maryland, 304
4. Illinois, 301
5. Wisconsin, 276
6. Indiana, 244
7. Ohio State, 228
8. Northwestern, 195
9. Iowa, 164
10. Rutgers, 147
11. Michigan, 131
12. Nebraska, 90
13. Penn State, 71
14. Minnesota, 33 

 Player of the year 

Zach Edey, Purdue (27) 

Also receiving votes: Tyson Walker, Michigan State (1) 

Freshman of the year 

Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana (19) 

Also receiving votes: DeShawn Harris-Smith, Maryland (5); Xavier Booker, Michigan State (2); Myles Colvin, Purdue, and Scotty Middleton, Ohio State (1) 

 Transfer of the year 

Ace Baldwin, Penn State (14) 

Also receiving votes: Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan (6); Jamison Battle, Ohio State (4); Kel’el Ware, Indiana, and AJ Storr, Wisconsin (2)

First team 

• Zach Edey, Purdue 56  
• Jahmir Young, Maryland 55  
• Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois  55 
• Tyson Walker, Michigan State 46 
• Boo Buie, Northwestern 45 

Second team 

• Clifford Omoruyi, Rutgers 36 
• A.J. Hoggard, Michigan State 26 
• Ace Baldwin, Penn State 11 
• Keisei Tominaga, Nebraska 11 
• Coleman Hawkins, Illinois 8 

Also receiving votes 

Bruce Thornton, Ohio State 7, Julian Reese, Maryland 6, Steven Crowl, Wisconsin 5, Dawson Garcia, Minnesota 5, Braden Smith, Purdue 5, Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin 4, Xavier Johnson, Indiana 4, Zed Key, Ohio State 4, Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana 4, Payton Sandfort, Iowa 4, Jaden Akins, Michigan State 3, Connor Essegian, Wisconsin 3, Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan 3, Tony Perkins, Iowa 3, Jamison Battle, Ohio State 2, Fletcher Loyer, Purdue 2, AJ Storr, Wisconsin 2, Tyler Wahl, Wisconsin 2, Malik Hall, Michigan State 1, Ben Krikke, Iowa 1, Donta Scott, Maryland 1, Kel’el Ware, Indiana 1

Note: Players received two points for a first-team vote and one for a second-team vote.

My Ballot

The top of my ballot had fewer surprises than last season. I voted for Purdue to win the league for the second year in a row, and I’m not sure how you could vote for anyone other than Zach Edey to win Big Ten Player of the Year.

I did have a few wrinkles further down the individual awards.

I went with Olivier Nkamhoua as Transfer of the Year, which was a less popular pick than I anticipated. I also voted for Ohio State’s Scotty Middleton as Freshman of the Year, mostly because I’m higher on Ohio State than others. Smart people have encouraging things about his game, he’s regarded as a two-way player and we know that Chris Holtmann isn’t afraid to feature a freshman wing in his offense.

My All-Big Ten First Team ballot was all chalk with Edey, Tyson Walker, Jahmir Young, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Boo Buie. I’d be willing to bet that this isn’t the postseason All-Big Ten team, but I think it is almost impossible to predict who plays their way onto the list right now.

I had a few more wrinkles on the second team with Nkamhoua, Cliff Omorouyi, AJ Hoggard, Bruce Thornton, and Payton Sandfort.

Thornton (7 votes total) and Sandfort (4 votes) require some projection, but I think both have the opportunity and role to be breakout players in the league this year. Sandfort isn’t going to transform into a Murray-twin overnight, but he’s a dynamic scorer and shooter who had multiple 20-point games last year in a system that features wing talent and shooting as effectively as any in the country. Someone will put up big scoring numbers in Iowa City and my money is on Sandfort.

Thornton got my nod as a breakout sophomore point guard in the league. Ohio State will be a better team than Penn State. I trust Thornton’s upside in a better situation over Ace Baldwin, a very talented player, as an up-transfer on a limited roster.

Nkamhoua only received three All-Big Ten votes, which feels light to me, and the jury is obviously still out on him as a featured star. Still, G-League Elite Camp participants who return to school have generally been outstanding college players.

1. Purdue

I firmly believe that making preseason predictions should mean avoiding groupthink as much as possible. The reality is that offseason narratives start to build in April, and it becomes hard to shake them. That’s how you end up with a situation like last year, where Indiana is the consensus favorite in the Big Ten despite no one having a convincing reason why.

So, it is essential to develop a process that lets you rank teams from the ground up rather than falling into the trap of consensus rankings. That’s why I have picked teams to win the league over the last two seasons (Purdue last year, Illinois the previous) that were not the most popular choices, and I would never question someone for picking a team other than the consensus projection.

This year, though. I don’t see a path to get there, and I was surprised that four voters picked Michigan State to win the league.

Purdue was head-and-shoulders above the league last year and should only be better this year.

2. Michigan State

Up until the last three years, Tom Izzo’s program had never finished out of the KenPom Top 25 in back-to-back years. Now they’ve done it in three straight years.

This team should break that streak, but the reality is that this MSU core hasn’t reached the level most expected — yet. There are some pretty fair questions to ask about this Michigan State roster. This group has struggled to create efficient 2-point shots, doesn’t have proven options at the five, and loses its best floor spacer from last season.

It still feels like the second-best roster in the Big Ten, but it also feels more like a top-15 than a top-5 team nationally. The freshman class has a real opportunity to change the narrative, and Tyson Walker can have a special COVID-year with his shot-making. The upside is there, but something new needs to snap into place to elevate Michigan State.

3. Ohio State (+4)

Ohio State at No. 3 is the surprise pick on my ballot. The panel picked the Buckeyes 7th and my third-place vote was the highest among the group.

To me, this pick comes down to two factors.

First, Ohio State wasn’t as bad of a team as their record indicated last season. The results were ugly, but teams with records worse than their rating are almost always undervalued headed into the following season. Chris Holtmann is under some pressure after last year’s disappointment and several early exits from the NCAA Tournament, but he’s consistently fielded teams that win more Big Ten games than they lose.

Second, this roster has significantly more depth and talent than so many others in the league.

The sophomore class is ready for a breakout with Bruce Thornton, Felix Okpara, and Roddy Gayle. Intriguing transfers are coming, like Minnesota shooter Jamison Battle and Penn State do-it-all athlete Evan Mahaffey. Zed Key’s junior season was ruined by injury, but he’s a capable post-up scorer and dominant rebounder. Then there’s a loaded freshman class featuring Scotty Middleton, Taison Chatman, and Devin Royal.

That feels way more enticing than a team built around a lottery pick who only played offense and career role players like Justice Suieng, Sean McNeil, and Isaac Likekele. Single plays against Michigan State and Purdue doesn’t hurt, either.

4. Illinois

Brad Underwood gets a mulligan and has another chance to build a team around Terrence Shannon Jr. This group still doesn’t have a true point guard, which is a terrifying and shocking thing to say in the transfer portal era, but Shannon is awesome, and I’m intrigued by incoming transfers Marcus Domask, Justin Harmon and Quincy Guerrier. The hope is that there’s a little bit less flash, a lot less drama, and more substance to this group.

The Illini should be one of the better defensive teams in the conference, with switchable defenders and length at almost every spot on the floor.

5. Maryland (-2)

This is a fascinating year for Kevin Willard, who overachieved expectations in his first season with the Terps. The question is whether last year — 23rd in KenPom, 11-9 in the Big Ten, 36th offense, 32nd defense — is a starting point or the standard. Willard’s Seton Hall teams were routinely good without ever being great, living in that 7-10 seed range come Selection Sunday.

That’s precisely what this group was last year, and the returning core of Jahmir Young, Donta Scott, and Julian Reese means that this year’s team should be pretty similar. The Terps played every Wednesday team in the Big Ten Tournament twice last year and still eeked out an 11-9 league record, and they only won two road games all season: at Minnesota and Louisville.

If this group takes a leap, it will come down to the freshmen. The Terps need DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser to be impact players who elevate the core.

6. Wisconsin (-1)

There will be a lot of attention about returning players at Wisconsin with Tyler Wahl, Steven Crowl, Chucky Hepburn, Connor Essegian and Max Klesmit. Returning that core is important, but the difference maker could be AJ Storr. The talented St. John’s transfer adds length, athleticism, and shooting to a roster that doesn’t have a true wing player. If Storr is as good as I think he can be, then there’s a chance that 6th in the league is too low for the Badgers.

It’s a year late, but I wouldn’t rule out a Chucky Hepburn breakout season as a junior. He battled through a tough sophomore year but still has the talent to flourish with an improved roster surrounding him. I’d be shocked if Wisconsin isn’t back in the NCAA Tournament this year after making the NIT last season.

7. Indiana (-1)

John Beilein was still Michigan’s head coach the last time Indiana played a game without Trayce Jackson-Davis on its roster. It’s hard to know what to make of that program, and at this point Mike Woodson, without Jackson-Davis in the fold.

The Hoosiers have two of the highest-upside players in the league with Kel’el Ware and Mackenzie Mgbako, who are both projected to be selected in next year’s NBA Draft. On the other hand, they are relying on Xavier Johnson to create everything offensively. Johnson is a great defensive point guard, and he’s flashed some upside throughout his career, but he’s notoriously erratic and turnover-prone, which is terrifying entering a season where he’ll be asked to do more offensively than he’s ever done.

There’s enough talent on this roster to have a good season, but there are more than enough question marks to envision a scenario where everything goes south.

8. Iowa (+1)

Iowa has finished in the top five nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency for four consecutive seasons but now has to do it without a consensus All-American. No more Luka Garza, Keegan Murray, or Kris Murray means this will probably be a more balanced top-20 style offense that we always expect from Fran McCaffery. The defense will struggle, of course, but Iowa will be dangerous when threes are falling and win a handful of games at Carver-Hawkeye that don’t make any sense.

9. Michigan (+2)

Michigan should be significantly improved in areas where it struggled last year, notably on defense, but it doesn’t have the offensive talent and firepower that bailed it out so many times last year. The Olivier Nkamhoua, Dug McDaniel, and Tarris Reed Jr. core has some real potential. Still, Michigan needs one more player to emerge as a bonafide two-way player to elevate the ceiling for this team. The best bet is on Alabama transfer Nimari Burnett, who has proven that he’s an elite defender but hasn’t flashed that offensive upside yet in his career.

10. Northwestern (-2)

Northwestern was the Big Ten’s surprise team last year, finishing tied for 2nd in the conference and winning a game in the NCAA Tournament. Peel back the onion, and you’ll remember that the Wildcats were only the 7th best team in the league last year, according to KenPom rankings, and lose arguably the best defensive player in the conference last season in Chase Audige.

Boo Buie is an excellent point guard, but he had a fantastic season last year and now will have to be somehow better without his wingman. The hope is that Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg and Ty Berry can provide some offensive help, but I’m okay being down on the Wildcats heading into the year.

11. Rutgers (-1)

I’ll be honest: Rutgers is a team that I convince myself of more as the offseason wears on. The Scarlet Knights lose Paul Mulcahy, Cam Spencer, and Caleb McConnell, but they still have Cliff Omoruyi to anchor the paint with a backcourt that could be much more fun this year. I’m intrigued by the Derek Simpson and Noah Fernades combo at the guard spots, and 6-foot-7 freshman Gavin Griffiths will step right into the jump shots that Spencer took last season.

It’s hard to pick Rutgers much higher based on a breakout sophomore, a UMass transfer, and a true freshman, but this team could be more enjoyable to watch than recent Rutgers teams.

12. Nebraska

Keisei Tominaga scored 17 points per game on impressive efficiency down the stretch last season in Nebraska’s best finish under Fred Hoiberg. Tominaga provides a great building block, but most of Nebraska’s roster is comprised of mid-major up transfers. I’m intrigued by most of the up transfers in a vacuum, but you’d like to see one or two impact high-major players to round out the roster, rather than just a group of players from New Mexico, Bradley, Charlotte, and Ball State.

13. Penn State

New head coach Mike Rhoades has his work cut out for him with almost an entirely new roster. Bringing over Ace Baldwin provides an important floor, but this feels like a transition year.

14. Minnesota

Ben Johnson has six Big Ten wins in two years and watched his program fall from 109th to 216th in KenPom last season. It’s hard to slot the Gophers anywhere other than last in the league until they prove otherwise.

That being said, I think there’s a bit of talent on this roster. Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell Jr. is an underrated pickup in the backcourt, Dawson Garcia is a proven producer at the power forward spot, and Pharrel Payne deserves to be in the sophomore breakout big man conversation next to Felix Okpara and Tarris Reed Jr.