Self Scout: An in-depth look at Michigan’s personnel through 12 games

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Twelve games into the season, Michigan has surpassed almost every offensive expectation. The Wolverines are ranked 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, 29 spots ahead of where they finished last year despite losing Hunter Dickinson, Jett Howard, and Kobe Bufkin from the rotation.

With roughly a third of the season in the books, it is the perfect time to take a step back and look at Michigan’s offensive personnel, how they’ve improved since last year, what actions they prefer, and where they are most effective.

Dug McDaniel

• Dug McDaniel has emerged as one of the elite playmakers in the country, and he’s putting up impressive statistics — 19.2 points and five assists per game — as the only true perimeter playmaker on Michigan’s roster. McDaniel has also maintained exceptional efficiency despite the usage and pressure on him to power Michigan’s offense.
• He’s ranked 2nd in the country with 19.7 points per game created out of ball screen shots and passes. Despite being one of the highest-usage ball screen players in the country, he’s scoring 1.03 points per play (87th percentile).
• With some notables labeled, this plot of every ball screen player in the country helps illustrate just how effective McDaniel has been in ball screen situations compared to the rest of the country and the extent to which Michigan relies on him to power the offense.

• McDaniel’s most obvious improvement this season has been at the rim. He’s getting to the rim a bit more often — 21% of attempts compared to 18% last year — but mostly, he’s finishing despite his diminutive frame. McDaniel is shooting 58% on shots at the rim, up from 32% last year.
• McDaniel’s collection of floaters, runners, and in-between finishes have always been a staple of his game. He was effective with that shot last year (44%) and has continued on a similar trajectory this year at 49%. Only two players in the country score more points per game off of runners and floaters (Boo Buie and Detroits’ Marcus Tankersley). McDaniel’s shot chart shows he’s improved finishing with that short runner on the left side of the floor this year.
• The more subtle and potentially most important shift in McDaniel’s game has been his shot selection. A year ago, he took a lot of pull-up jumpers from the elbow. This year, he’s taking those shots behind the 3-pointer line. McDaniel’s effective field goal percentage on off-the-dribble jumpers is up to 52.8%. A year ago, 41% of his pull-up jumpers were from 3-point range. This year, 72% of his pull-up jumpers are from 3-point range. He made 20 3-pointers off the bounce last year and is already up to 15 this season.
• McDaniel rarely plays without the ball, but he’s shooting 37% on catch-and-shoot threes, up from 29.5% last year.
• McDaniel’s assist-to-turnover ratio in transition has also improved. It is up 6.7 to 1 this year, compared to 2 to 1 as a freshman.

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Olivier Nkamhoua

• Olivier Nkamhoua came to Michigan in part to play a different role in a different offense. The move has mostly paid off. He’s playing more (81% of minutes, up from 62.8% at Tennessee), and he’s also playing more on the perimeter.
• A third of his possessions at Tennessee were post-ups, compared to 19% this year. He’s also getting fewer touches as a cutter (10% of his offense, down from 21%). Meanwhile, he’s up to 26% of his possessions out of spot-ups, up from 15% last year. Nkamhoua is getting more touches on the wing and outside the 3-point line than he ever did at Tennessee. That shift is at the root of Nkamhoua’s evolution as a player, for better and worse.
• Nkamhoua is taking more catch-and-shoot attempts per game — 3.3, up from 1.7 — and he’s improved his accuracy: 56.4 eFG%, up from 50.8.
• He’s been very efficient as a shot creator, scoring 1.11 points per play in post-up or isolation situations. According to Syenrgy’s Shot Quality stats, Nkamhoua scores .18 points over expected per post-up shot and .61 points over expected per isolation shot. He takes and makes tough shots consistently for an offense that needs a secondary shot creator. Nkamhoua’s sweet spot is still that 10-foot range with the turnaround jumper.
• In the post, Nkamhoua has been more efficient going over his left shoulder (1.23 PPP) than his right shoulder (.714 PPP) but goes to the right more often. He was more balanced but more proficient over his right shoulder a year ago.
• Nkamhoua is still an elite finisher at the rim, shooting just under 70%, and averages over a dunk per game.
• The transition to a more perimeter-oriented role has brought up some trouble spots. Mostly, Nkamhoua struggles to drive the ball off the bounce. He almost always drives to his right (16 of 22 spot-up drives, 68% of all drives) and scores just .69 points per play when he drives out of spot-up situations, shooting 46% and turning it over on a quarter of his possessions. Those “catch-and-attack” wing touches are the biggest pain point in Nkamhoua’s game right now.
• Despite those struggles, Nkamkhoua is ranked 14th in the country in shot-making over expectations among all “playmaking bigs,” per Synergy.

Nimari Burnett

• Nimari Burnett has already played 387 minutes this year, which is close to matching his career high for total minutes played set last season at 392. That illustrates how much Michigan is asking of Burnett relative to his career and how little we knew about his game before he arrived in Ann Arbor.
• The most interesting takeaway from Burnett’s profile up to this point is that he has inverse jump-shooting splits. Burnett is a more accurate shooter off the dribble (43%, 55 eFG%, 30 attempts) than off the catch (34%, 50 eFG%, 44 attempts). That’s atypical for most players, especially non-point guards.
• My best guess for the inverse splits is how Burnett loads up for his release. He doesn’t have the quickest release and seems to be bothered on closely contested catch and shoots (27%), but he is more comfortable if he can take one dribble and get into his jumper more naturally.
• The elephant in the room is the finishing. Burnett wasn’t a great finisher at Alabama, and he’s struggled at Michigan. Burnett is shooting 44% at the rim, 33% on layups (21 attempts), and is 1-of-4 on runners.
• The short 10-to-15-foot jumper has been his most reliable 2-point shot, almost all on the right side of the floor.
• I don’t usually read too much into sidedness on a shot chart when it comes to efficiency, because of the small samples early in the season, but this is the second year in a row that Burnett has shot it much better from the right side of the floor than the left.

Terrance Williams II

• Terrance Williams II is in the midst of one of the most impressive perimeter shooting turnarounds I can remember from a Big Ten player. Williams was a career 28% 3-point shooter entering the year and is knocking down 42% of his threes on over five attempts per game.
• It’s not just that Williams is making threes; it’s that he’s more efficient and more aggressive than anyone would have imagined. He’s leading the Big Ten in points per game scored off of catch-and-shoot shot attempts at 6.8 per game. Williams isn’t just having a bounceback shooting year; he’s legitimately been one of the best perimeter shooters in the Big Ten.

• Williams is shooting 43.8% on catch-and-shoot attempts (63.3 eFG%), a significant increase from 28.4% (39.9 eFG%) last year. He’s also shooting 46% on transition threes, which is impressive considering he’s attempted his fair share of heat checks this season.
• Williams has already made 28 catch-and-shoot threes this year after hitting 21 all last season.
• The transition to playing the three instead of the four has led to some uptick in other actions. Mainly, Michigan is running Williams off of a few screens to get him open for jumpers or right-handed drives to the rim. He’s just 4-of-12 on shots off of screens, but at 14 possessions, he’s getting a little more than one play per game. A year ago, he took four shots off of screens the entire season.
• He’s not doing much playmaking or shot creation from the wing. He’s only logged six possessions total of ball screen or isolation plays, one post-up, and five dribble handoffs.

Tarris Reed Jr.

• Tarris Reed Jr.’s sophomore year has been a bit of an adventure, but he’s shown real progress over the last two weeks. He’s averaging 15.3 points per game over Michigan’s last three games after reaching double figures in only one of its first nine games.
• Around a quarter of Reed’s offensive plays are post-ups, and he’s 8-of-16 from the floor on those actions. That’s a decent shooting percentage on post-ups, but it hides the whole story. Reed turns it over on 30% of post-up plays and has struggled at the free-throw line. Both flaws hold back his efficiency, and he averages just .633 points per post-up play, 17th percentile.
• Reed’s inefficiency as a cutter and roller is the more significant concern. He’s scoring .941 points per play as a cutter (17th percentile) and .93 points per play as a roller (36th percentile). Shooting 50% or worse on these attempts is tough because these are supposed to be some of the most efficient touches in Michigan’s offense. On the year, Reed has a -.35 points per shot “shot-making score” on cuts and a -.10 “shot-making score” on rolls.
• Reed’s face-up and isolation game has been a sneakily efficient part of his arsenal. He’s scored 11 points on six isolation possessions.

Will Tschetter

• Tschetter hasn’t taken many shots this year, but he’s made most of them. He’s shooting 75% on twos and 67% on threes (18 attempts) for an 84 eFG% that would sound high in a one-game sample, let alone 12.
• Tschetter is scoring .59 points per shot over expected on his attempts for the year.
• He’s 7 of 12 on catch-and-shoot jumpers (94.7 eFG%) and shooting 75% at the rim on 28 attempts.
• Tschetter also leads Michigan in scoring as a roller/popper with 17 points on 14 possessions, including 12 points on nine pick-and-pops. That’s an interesting stat for two reasons. First, it shows how efficient Tschetter has been in those spots, but also that Michigan isn’t getting many touches for Reed (15) or Nkamhoua (4) as a screener.

Tray Jackson

• Tray Jackson played most of his minutes at the five for Seton Hall last year and is seeing more time at the three and four this year. The transition hasn’t been smooth.
• A couple of issues are plaguing Jackson, but his jumper is one notable concern. Jackson has only attempted 16 catch-and-shoot jumpers and made 19% of them. A year ago, he shot 34% on catch-and-shoot jumpers; the year before that, he shot 38%. That season two years ago, when Jackson played more of a stretch four, 51% of his attempts were catch-and-shoot jumpers. This year, only 28% of his attempts are catch-and-shoot jumpers.
• Jackson plays most of his minutes behind Williams, who has been thriving on catch-and-shoot looks in the same role, illustrating the extent to which Jackson’s jumper is holding him back. Both in his willingness to take threes, and his ability to make them.
• Jackson’s stats on drives demonstrate some of his pros and cons this season. He’s 8-of-9 from the floor when he drives to the basket. That’s remarkably efficient, but he’s turned it over on 36% of the possessions he tries to drive to the basket. In short, every drive is either a bucket or a turnover.
• His transition stats have also seen significant regression. He grades out in the 18th percentile as a transition scorer, 5 of 12 from the floor, with a 20% turnover rate. He was in the 94th percentile in transition two years ago and the 81st percentile last year.
• He is efficient around the rim and has done an excellent job of finishing cuts and putbacks.