2023-24 Season

Game 25: Michigan at Illinois Preview

Michigan is on the road again tonight to take on Illinois (7:00 p.m., Peacock). Less than a month ago, the Illini carved up the Wolverines, 88-73, in the Crisler Center. Illinois will have its best player, Terrence Shannon Jr., in the rematch, while Michigan will be without Dug McDaniel on the road tonight.

The Wolverines trailed by 30 points in the first half on Saturday without McDaniel in Lincoln and now get to play the toughest remaining game on the schedule in Champaign. It’s hard to foresee anything other than another long night for a Michigan team that has had plenty of them this year.

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A clear conference No. 2

It’s starting to look like there might not be much of a Big Ten title race, but Illinois is emerging as the second-best team in the league. The Illini are ranked 11th nationally, per KenPom, checking in at 6th in adjusted offense and 41st in adjusted defense. In league games, Illinois outscores its opponents 1.16 (2nd) to 1.06 (5th) points per possession.

That’s roughly double the next tier in the league, although it still lags behind Purdue at the top.

When the Illini slip up, it is usually their defense that gives way. The Illini have allowed 1.09 PPP or more in seven games, and they are just 2-5 in those games. Most recently, Michigan State scorched the nets to the tune of 1.26 PPP in a win in East Lansing over the weekend.

Fouls have been the common denominator in many of those letdown defensive spots. The Illini are just 3-5 when their opponents post a free-throw rate over 25%.

‘Road Michigan’ isn’t a serious Big Ten team

We’re four (road) games into Dug McDaniel’s suspension, and it is clear that Michigan isn’t anything close to a legitimate Big Ten team without its point guard.

The Wolverines have managed just .94 points per possession in those games while allowing 1.24 points per possession. That means that Michigan has been outscored by 30 points per 100 possessions. To put those numbers into context, the Wolverines are last in the Big Ten with a -11.5 efficiency margin in all 13 games.

The numbers are ugly across the board. Michigan shoots 38% on twos in road games without McDaniel (compared to 53.7% in other games), while its opponents shoot 51.3% on twos. Michigan’s eFG% in those four games is just 43% (compared to 54.5% in other games) to their opponents’ 57.3%.

This isn’t a good basketball team with Dug McDaniel, but it is a group that has little to no chance of winning a Big Ten road game without him. Especially against league contenders.

For its part, Michigan seems at least aware of its shortcomings. The Wolverines have managed to shorten games and limit possessions to keep the final margin somewhat respectable. Three of the four games to this point are among the six slowest that Michigan has played this year. The other was Purdue, one of the worst losses in program history.

One-on-one play defines Illinois

Illinois basketball boils down to one-on-one play on both ends of the court.

The Illini defense forces one-on-one action and sells out at all costs to defend the three. The Illini are ranked 7th nationally in opponent 3-point rate (27.9% of attempts and 11th in opponent assist rate (40.9% of makes). Illinois plays almost entirely drop coverage and will rarely, if ever, double-team the post or help off of wing shooters.

Michigan’s only one-on-one creation options are in the post, which means we should get a heavy dose of Olivier Nkamhoua and Tarris Reed Jr. post-ups tonight. The duo combined for 36 points in the first meeting, and the Wolverines don’t have many different options in a game requiring individual shot creation.

Offensively, the Illini are content to play a similar style. They rely on finding mismatches with their lineup, which is undersized at the five but oversized in the backcourt. Illini guards, wings and bigs will play “booty ball” and dribble the ball into the post and play off of that action.

The downside of the approach is that the offense can become a bit “my turn, your turn,” but the upside is that there’s usually at least one matchup where Illinois has a significant size or quickness advantage.

Against the Wolverines, there’s more than one. Michigan’s roster doesn’t have the answers defensively against the Illini.

Coleman Hawkins was incredible in the game in Ann Arbor. Hawkins is having a terrific senior year and is emerging as one of the league’s most entertaining players to watch. He’s an elite defensive piece, but he’s also improved offensively. He makes his threes (career-high 38% on the year), he turns it over less often, he makes plays for others, and he scores in the post.

Hawkins was always a player whose potential was ahead of his production, but it feels like that’s changed this year.

Ty Rodgers is not really a point guard and definitely not a shooter, which has led teams to try to experiment with different matchups defensively, including putting their center on him.

Michigan’s problem is that even that doesn’t fix anything. The Wolverines might have one or two players who could guard an Illini rotation piece, but they usually have to guard someone even better.

There’s still nowhere to hide the point guard, there’s still no one to box out Quincy Guerrier, and no one who can guard Marcus Domask one-on-one. And now, in this rematch, there’s the whole problem of Terrence Shannon Jr.

It’s tough to see any obvious answers, but Michigan has to try something.

Defensive rebounding is crucial

Illinois excels at crashing the offensive glass. The Illini are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding, hauling down 36.3% of their misses.

Illinois’ offensive rebounding is tough to deal with because it comes from so many positions and locations on the floor. The guards, wings, and forwards all can crash the glass, and Illinois’ interchangeability means that defenders have to keep track of guarding different types of players in different roles.

Illinois rebounded 38% of its misses in the first meeting, and four starters had at least one offensive board, with Quincy Guerrier (6), Ty Rodgers (3), and Coleman Hawkins (3) leading the way.

That balanced offensive rebounding attack builds off of the offense’s ability to create mismatches. Someone is getting boxed out by a point guard, someone is lost behind a switch, and there’s always someone available to crash with an advantage.

Bottom Line

KenPom pegs Michigan as 85-71 underdogs, with a 10% chance of winning on the road. It seems like Vegas lines have started to catch up to Dug McDaniel’s suspension, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line creep up toward the high teens by tip-off.

Notable Replies

  1. Royalman10

    Well. I’ve never drank alcohol before but, this game is probably going to change that. Was a fun first week in November, here’s to hoping some weird voodoo crap happens and we somehow win

  2. kturnup

    My life was better when I didn’t know this game was tonight

  3. AC1997

    I am going to assume Underwood won’t hold back on pressing JL with Rodgers all game.

  4. umhoops

    Maybe a bit, but it isn’t really something they do and it doesn’t really fit into their core philosophy.

  5. adamsmit86

    Whatever the spread is tonight it’s not high enough

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