College basketball season tips off on Monday, which means it’s time for some over/unders. Dylan and Eric preview the season by calling their shot on listener-submitted over/under props on everything from KenPom projections to individual stats and season accomplishments.
Make sure to follow along and vote on each prop with your own projection below:
Team Stats (better or worse)
KenPom Adj O: 20.5th
KenPom Adj D: 8.5th
249.5th in team TO% (~18%)
Adjusted Tempo: 25th
Offensive Rebounding Rate: 10.5th
Defensive Rebounding Rate: 35.5th
Block Rate: 25th
40.4% Team 3PA/FGA
Team 3P (33.5%)
Rotation
O/U 7 Unique players that start one or more games for Michigan this season (injuries not included)
Players to average double-figure scoring. 5.5
Players to average 10+ minutes. 8.5
KenPom MVPs. Last year, Michigan had 5 players earn at least 1: Wolf, Vlad, Burnett, Gayle, and Tre. Over/under/push 5 this year again?
Players to score 20+ points in a game. 5.5
Individual
Yaxel Lendeborg
30-point games for Yaxel Lendeborg 2.5
16.8 PPG Yaxel Lendeborg
12.5 KenPom MVPs for Yaxel Lendeborg
O/U 0.5 triple-doubles recorded this year by any Michigan player
Roddy Gayle
29.5 3-Pointers Made for Roddy Gayle
29.5% 3-point percentage for Roddy Gayle
Elliot Cadeau
Elliot Cadeau TO Rate 22.5%
Elliot Cadeau 3PM/G: 1.1
Elliot Cadeau 3P%: 34%
Trey McKenney
Trey McKenney MPG: 15.5
10-point (or more) games for McKenney: 6.5
Morez Johnson Jr.
Morez Johnson 3PA/game: 0.5
Morez Johnson MP%: 58.5
Morez Johnson blocks per game: 1.75
Aday Mara
Aday Mara MP%: 53.5
Aday Mara assists per game: 1.75
Aday Mara block rate: 11.5%
LJ Cason
LJ Cason 3-point percentage: 33.5%
LJ Cason minutes per game: 17.5
Will Tschetter
Will Tschetter MPG: 15
Winters Grady
Winters Grady total 3’s made this year: 30
Season
Big Ten wins – 13.5
NCAA tournament wins – 2.5
O/U 2.5 wins in Players Era Festival
How many Michigan players will get drafted in the 2026 NBA Draft? 2.5
Banners (conference regular season, conference tourney, Final Four, or national title) raised from this season – 1.5
Final KenPom rank – 11th
Notable Replies
Discuss the Article
10 more replies
DMB43
We’re dooming the defense already I see
DMB43
Dylan and Eric complimenting the line I set is a top 5 feeling ever
DMB43
Okay I have a genuine question. It feels like we talked all offseason about how this Michigan team has the goods to be truly elite defensively. I feel like if we follow the golden rule of exhibitions what exactly has changed? To me an 80% - 20% split that we will be worse than 8.5th after finishing 12th last year signifies we have shifted our thinking. I’m not really a fan of “play the numbers” of it just being less likely since 8.5 is pretty good, but is it more than that? I’m not saying everyone here expected it to be a top 5 defense like I do, but I would’ve envisioned a bit closer to maybe 60-40? Maybe I’m off here totally about expectations, but it is curious to me. Is this a shift from the first scrimmage with Mara and Morez who haven’t practiced much or is this just maybe natural reversion to the mean from “we’re the greatest ever”? I’d guess if we ran this poll 2 months ago we’d be voting differently for some reason?
Even offense while I agree it will be better than 20.5th, I’m surprised that is a 95-5 better split. Feels like the turnover concerns are still evident in the roster construction and Dusty’s coaching that could cap the ceiling. But then if we think the offense is better and potentially they turn the ball over less than last season I gotta think that also inherently gives the defense a slight boost
Maybe I’m just flipped on the team in general?
(For the record I’m not saying anyone here is wrong. Just curious)
ReegsShannon
From watching them, just feels like they have a long way to go defensively to be elite even if they improve throughout the year. Might be tough to reach pre-season expectations on season-long numbers if they’re blowing switches constantly and Yax is running around aimlessly for the first month.
alliteration
I think the defense is gonna be really good because we have some pretty proven commodities on that end. Think even more so if Yax learns how to play good team defense which i think he will.
Did last years team start off great? Felt like it took a bit for it to all come together and I can see that being the case this year. Always gonna be some transition costs with so many new faces every year but I am betting the November defense looks a lot different than the February defense.