Michigan hosts Indiana tonight (7:00 p.m., Peacock) to kick off a three-game homestand in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have a short turnaround from their Saturday game at Oregon, but don’t leave the state of Michigan for another game until February.
Indiana comes in amid a rough patch, dropping its last three games to Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa. There’s no shame in losing to those programs, but the 17-point home loss to the Hawkeyes was disappointing for an IU program searching for shine on its NCAA Tournament resume.
The Hoosiers are 12-6 (3-4 Big Ten) on the season but only have two top-100 wins: home against No. 81 Kansas State and home against No. 53 Washington.
The Hoosiers
Indiana’s offense relies on spacing, shooting, and cutting. The Hoosiers are ranked 13th nationally in 3-point volume (50.3% of attempts), 9th in assist rate (64.8% of makes), and 19th in 2-point shooting (59.6%).
The Hoosiers spread teams out with their 3-point shooting and leverage that spacing to create cutting opportunities at the basket. IU ranks highly in cutting volume (95th percentile) and off-screen volume (97th percentile), per Synergy, and is ranked second in the Big Ten in points scored off of both actions.
In Big Ten play, Indiana averages 1.18 points per possession (6th) and is one of the best shooting teams in the conference. The Hoosiers have a 57.3 eFG% (4th) thanks to 59.4% shooting inside the arc (2nd) and 36.7% shooting from deep (3rd).
The Hoosiers don’t stand out in any of the non-shooting four factors offensively: 10th in turnover rate, 13th in offensive rebounding rate, and 12th in free-throw rate in Big Ten games.
Indiana’s defense has fallen off a cliff in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers were ranked 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency in non-conference play, per Bart Torvik, compared to 122nd in conference games.
The Hoosiers established a +EV defensive shot profile — 17th in average 2-point distance, 74th in 3-point volume, 20th in defensive assist rate — that prevented shots at the rim and open threes in non-league games, but it isn’t holding up against teams with Big Ten size.
In Big Ten games, IU is allowing 58.1% on 2-point attempts (15th in the Big Ten, 333rd nationally in conference-only games) and a 54 eFG% (14th in the league).
The Hoosiers have allowed over 1.2 points per possession in four of their last five games — 1.29 PPP to Iowa, 1.25 PPP to Michigan State, 1.24 PPP to Nebraska, and 1.26 PPP to Washington — and given up 52%+ shooting on twos in every league game.
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