Trey McKenney’s sophomore leap will define Michigan’s ceiling

Before the transfer portal became the top story, spring and summer on the college basketball schedule were defined by grassroots basketball and player development. The offseason meant bloggers like me would try to project next year’s breakout players rather than assess transfer portal fits.

While Michigan’s transfer portal reputation is well-deserved and helped it win a National Championship, its 2026-27 ceiling will hinge on several key returning players.

Chief among those returning players is sophomore guard Trey McKenney.

McKenney’s upcoming sophomore year reminds me of Luke Winn’s annual “Breakout Sophomore Formula” column that attempted to identify breakout sophomores based on some key criteria: single-digit scoring as a freshman, 20-ish minutes per game or less, likely to play significantly more minutes due to roster construction, a respectable level of efficiency (100+ offensive rating), and a shot rate (percent of team’s shots) of 23%+.

McKenney finished his freshman year at 9.9 points per game, 22.1 minutes per game, 20.6% shot rate, and a 123.8 offensive rating. He’s not a perfect fit by the model, but he’s a pretty good facsimile of a fit for modern college basketball.

The 6-foot-4 guard is going to play more minutes and take more shots as a sophomore. And he’s shown more than enough — including on the biggest stages in the sport — to believe in his ability to scale up.