First Look: Six keys, stats and trends that will decide Michigan-Michigan State

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Michigan heads to East Lansing on Friday night for a rivalry showdown with first place in the conference on the line. The Wolverines fell short in both meetings against the Spartans last year, watching their Big Ten title hopes evaporate over the final month of the season.

Now, both teams are knotted at the top of the league again — tied at 9-1 with the opportunity to pull ahead of their rivals.

We’ll have our full game preview on Friday, but first, here’s a deep dive into six stats, matchups, and trends that will help decide the game.

The two best interior defenses in basketball

This is a matchup between the two top defenses in college basketball, per KenPom, and the hallmark of both teams is their ability to defend around the basket.

While they do it a bit differently schematically, the end results are similar. Big Ten teams shoot 47.1% on twos against Michigan State and 47.2% on twos against Michigan.

Michigan State’s defense is ranked 5th nationally in percentage of shots allowed at the rim and 20th in rim field goal percentage allowed (51.5%).  The Spartans lead the country in allowing just 18.1 points per game at the basket.

Michigan is ranked 4th nationally in points allowed per game at the rim, but 2nd nationally in percentage of shots allowed at the rim, and 2nd nationally at 47.5% allowed.

Michigan ranks 7th in paint points allowed per game; Michigan State is two spots behind at 9th. The Spartans are ranked 12th in block percentage; the Wolverines are ranked 6th.

You could spend hours digging up stats that illustrate how effectively either team defends the basket, then you’ll see the other a couple of spots away in the same chart.

There might not be another matchup in college basketball this year that better showcases interior size and physicality than this one, but the two defenses don’t play against each other, they have to defend the opposing offense.

Michigan has been the better offense overall this season and is more reliant on and effective in interior scoring than the Spartans.

The Wolverines attempt 47.1% of their shots at the basket (90th percentile) and make 67.1% of those shots (99th percentile) on 29 attempts per game.

Remember, Michigan State allows 51.5% shooting at the rim on 17 attempts per game — 18.1 points — and Michigan scores 38.9 points per game at the basket. That 20-plus-point scoring gap and 15-plus-percent efficiency gap between the two teams will shape the matchup.

Michigan State isn’t as productive overall with its interior scoring, but it is extremely efficient. The Spartans only grade out in the 18th percentile in scoring volume at the basket (36.3% of attempts) but shoot 65.5% (96th percentile) at the basket on 21.2 attempts per game.

Michigan’s one-on-one post-up scoring

Days after a frustrating matchup against a Nebraska team that doubles everything, Michigan will face a different challenge in East Lansing. The Spartans generally play one-on-one in the post rather than sending extra bodies.

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