Bracket Watch: March 6th, 2025

February was a balancing act for Michigan – with two double-digit losses scattered amongst seven tight wins, the Wolverines slowly climbed the seed list before settling on the line between a 3 seed and a 4 seed. The results, a pile of excellent Quad-1 and Quad-2 wins, came through in spades, but it never felt entirely convincing, and the forward-looking metrics remained somewhat skeptical. And as Michigan’s team sheet grew more and more off-kilter, it begged the question: Would the Wolverines start playing more like their sterling resume would suggest, or would their resume start to look more like the deteriorating quality of their play?

If you’re reading this, you probably already know, but the answer to that question appears to be the latter. After last night’s 71-65 home defeat to the Maryland Terrapins, Dusty May’s group finally took that decisive tumble, and now their destiny has slipped out of their control. Unless Iowa pulls off an upset tonight over Michigan State, the Wolverines are out of the league championship race and, for now at least, out of my projected top 4 seed lines in the NCAA Tournament.

I won’t try to sugarcoat it, these last two home losses are deflating. But while they are momentum-killing, they are not season-killing by any means. Despite falling to my 5-seed line, Michigan remains firmly in the protected seed conversation, and as of writing, I have U-M just barely on the outside of the top 16 – at 17th overall, to be precise.

Many bracketologists haven’t updated their seed lists yet, but those who have share this opinion, placing the Wolverines in the neighborhood of 16-20 overall. Here’s where things stand: