Michigan picked 3rd in “official unofficial” Big Ten poll (and a breakdown of my ballot)

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The official unofficial Big Ten poll of conference media members was released today, and Michigan was picked to finish 3rd in the conference.

Illinois was picked to win the league with 18 of 28 first-place votes. Michigan State was picked second and received nine first-place votes while Michigan received one.

A full breakdown of the polling results is available here.

Individual ballots were not published with names this year, but the panel included Jeremy Werner (247Sports), Scott Richey (Champaign News-Gazette), Alex Bozich (Inside the Hall), Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register), Trevor Andershock (247Sports), Tyler Tachman (Des Moines Register), George Gerbo (Washington Times), Patrick Stevens (Washington Post), Dylan Burkhardt (UM Hoops), Andrew Kahn (MLive), Graham Couch (Lansing State Journal), Matt Wenzel (MLive), Andy Greder (St. Paul Pioneer Press), Ryan James (247Sports), Wilson Moore (Omaha World-Herald), Robin Washut (On3), Amie Just (Lincoln Journal Star), Adam Jardy (Columbus Dispatch), Steve Helwagen (247Sports), Chris Hansen (Register Guard), Jon Sauber (Centre Daily Times), Brian Neubert (On3), Jerry Carino (Asbury Park Press), Brian Fonseca (NJ), Tracy McDannald (Bruin Report), Connor Morrissette (Bruin247), John Steppe (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel), Nile McNair (Wisconsin State Journal).

The “official unofficial” poll exists because the conference’s official media poll doesn’t release a complete 1-18 standings prediction. Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch conducted this year’s poll, which features 28 Big Ten beat writers.

The panel ranked Michigan as high as first (once) and as low as sixth (twice). Here’s how Michigan’s votes were distributed across the 28 ballots:

The panel named Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. as Preseason Player of the Year, and he received 23 of 28 votes. David Mirkovic (4) and Pryce Sandfort (1) also received Player of the Year votes.

Two Michigan players — Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney — were named to the All-Big Ten First Team along with Fears, Mirkovic and Sandfort. Ohio State’s Anthony Thompson was named Freshman of the Year, and Illinois’ Stefan Vaaks was named Transfer of the Year.

Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam also received All-Big Ten votes, and four votes for Transfer of the Year.

The complete predicted order of finish is as follows:

Standings (first-place votes in parentheses)

1. Illinois, 498 (18)
2. Michigan State, 483 (9)
3. Michigan, 436 (1)
4. UCLA, 375
5. Nebraska, 369
6. Purdue, 347
7. USC, 340
8. Ohio State, 324
9. Indiana, 292
10. Iowa, 264
11. Wisconsin, 240
12. Maryland, 203
13. Minnesota, 168
14. Oregon, 147
15. Washington, 116
16. Northwestern, 88
17. Rutgers, 68
18. Penn State, 35

Player of the year:
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State (23)
Also receiving votes: David Mirkovic, Illinois (4), Pryce Sandfort, Nebraska (1).

Freshman of the year:
Anthony Thompson, Ohio State (15)

Also receiving votes: Nikola Kusturica, UCLA (9), Quentin Coleman, Illinois; Christian Collins, USC; Luke Ertel, Purdue; Baba Oladotun, Maryland (1)

Transfer of the year:
Stefan Vaaks, Illinois (12)

Also receiving votes: Markus Burton, Indiana, Aiden Sherrell, Indiana (5); Moustapha Thiam, Michigan (4); Jaylen Petty, UCLA; Malique Ewin, Oregon (1).

First Team All-Big Ten (unanimous selections in all caps)
JEREMY FEARS, Michigan State 54
Pryce Sandfort, Nebraska 52
David Mirkovic, Illinois 51
Elliot Cadeau, Michigan 48
Trey McKenney, Michigan 29

Second Team All-Big Ten
Nolan Winter, Wisconsin 25
John Mobley Jr., Ohio State 24
Andrej Stojakovic, Illinois 15
Rodney Rice, USC 14
Aiden Sherrell, Indiana 12

Also receiving votes:
Note: Players received two points for a first-team vote and one point for a second-team vote.
Pharrel Payne, Maryland 11
Trent Perry, UCLA; Stefan Vaaks, Illinois 8
Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois; Nikola Kusturica, UCLA 7
Markus Burton, Indiana 6
Moustapha Thiam, Michigan 5
Alijah Arenas, USC; Coen Carr, Michigan State; Braden Frager, Nebraska 4
Cade Tyson, Minnesota 3
Malique Ewin, Oregon; Caden Pierce, Purdue; Anthony Thompson, Ohio State 2
Jacob Cofie, USC; Tariq Francis, Rutgers; Zvonimir Ivisic, Illinois; KJ Lewis, USC; Baba Oladotun, Maryland; Jaylen Petty, UCLA; Tate Sage, Iowa; Wesley Yates, Washington 1

One helpful way to analyze the preseason poll is to plot the voting points and look for tiers. In my eyes, those tiers fall something like this:

• Tier 1 (480+): Illinois, Michigan State
• Tier 2 (430+): Michigan
• Tier 3 (320+): UCLA, Nebraska, Purdue, USC, Ohio State
• Tier 4 (240+): Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
• Tier 5: Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State

My Ballot

Interestingly, my ballot ranked 17 of the 18 teams in the league within one spot of their final poll finish. The only real outlier in my ballot was Ohio State, which I picked to finish 4th in the league and the poll picked to finish 8th.

Looking at the vote distribution, that’s less controversial than the final results make it seem. The 4th through 8th spots (and really 4th through 10th) are extremely close. Four teams (UCLA, Nebraska, USC, and Ohio State) received third-place votes and votes to finish 11th or worse. There’s not much preseason separation in the middle of the league, which makes sense in a league where Bart Torvik has 13 top-50 teams.

Why Ohio State in 4th? Everyone is going to point to the loss of Bruce Thornton, and there’s no replacing a player of his caliber, but this feels like a team that could be a bit deeper and more balanced in talent. Jake Diebler obviously needs to prove it, but I’m very intrigued by the jumbo wing combination of Amare Bynum and Anthony Thompson.

I’m also hesitant to pick either California team too high for various reasons, including that travel over the course of the league schedule seems to wear teams down in a way that really impacts the standings.

I’m not going to argue with anyone who makes a strong case for one team in the middle group over another, and the story here is how tightly grouped the majority of the league seems on paper.

My other slightly controversial pick was Michigan State over Illinois to win the league. The Spartans have the league’s preseason top point guard and a deep roster loaded with guards and wings. To me, Illinois has a higher ceiling if things go right, but there’s more to figure out. How does the offense work with a new backcourt? Can it reach last year’s elite level of success? And if not, can the defense improve enough to make up for it?

Tom Izzo, with a fourth-year point guard heading into an All-American year, feels like a reasonable preseason bet.

Here’s my 1-through-18 with the difference from the final poll noted:

1. Michigan State +1
2. Illinois  –1
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State +4
5. UCLA –1
6. Nebraska –1
7. Purdue –1
8. USC –1
9. Indiana
10. Wisconsin +1
11. Iowa  –1
12. Minnesota  +1
13. Maryland  –1
14. Oregon
15. Washington
16. Northwestern
17. Rutgers
18. Penn State

Like the panel, I selected Fears for Player of the Year and Thompson for Freshman of the Year. I deviated from the group and chose Moustapha Thiam as Transfer of the Year, given the major role he’ll play in Ann Arbor this season. It’ll be hard for Michigan to finish 3rd or better in the league if Thiam isn’t one of the league’s best transfers.

My first team matched the panel, while my second team had Trent Perry and Pharrel Payne instead of Andrej Stojakovic and Aiden Sherrell. My primary takeaway from doing All-Big Ten ballots (and our top 40 players list) is that we overrate returning players, and it’s really hard to pick an incoming transfer for these teams unless they are blatantly obvious.

I didn’t have any incoming transfers on my teams, and the panel had one in ten. I suspect by the time March rolls around, the All-Big Ten team will have significantly more newcomers.

*Player of the Year
Jeremy Fears Jr.

*Freshman of the Year
Anthony Thompson

*Transfer of the Year
Moustapha Thiam

*Five-man first team all-Big Ten
Jeremy Fears Jr.
David Mirkovic
Pryce Sandfort
Elliot Cadeau
Trey McKenney

*Five-man second team all-Big Ten
Rodney Rice
John Mobley Jr.
Trent Perry
Nolan Winter
Pharrel Payne