College basketball practices are underway and exhibition season is around the corner. With just over a month until tip-off, preseason magazines and previews are hitting the internet.
While the official unofficial Big Ten poll and KenPom’s projections aren’t out yet, enough preseason ink has been spilled to gauge expectations across the league. We’ve rounded up eight different preseason magazines, previews and computer projections to illustrate how the league is perceived in the preseason.
Here’s our aggregate table combining data from Blue Ribbon, Lindy’s, CBS Sports, Jon Rothstein, CJH Analytics, Evan Miya, Basket Under Review, and Bart Torvik’s T-Rank.
Aggregating the rankings breaks the conference into four natural tiers, with a few polarizing teams mixed throughout. The most natural grouping is four tiers with a few polarizing teams mixed throughout. The graphic below shows those tiers and illustrates the range of how humans and computers view each team.
Here’s a rundown of other takeaways from each preseason publication.
The consensus
- Illinois is the unanimous pick to win the Big Ten. All eight sources, five human and three computer, have the Illini first.
- Michigan State is second in seven of eight sources (CJH Analytics has the Spartans third), and Michigan is third in six of eight. CJH has the Wolverines second; Basket Under Review has them fifth. Nobody outside those three teams gets a top-two vote anywhere.
- The consensus top eight, by average finish: Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, UCLA, USC, Nebraska, Ohio State and Purdue. Nebraska and Ohio State are tied at 6.88.
- USC is the most divisive team in the league: 4th in four of the five human rankings, 8th, 9th and 13th in the computers, a nine-spot spread.
- Nebraska is the other humans-versus-computers split, in the opposite direction. All three models have the Huskers in the top five; the magazines have them 10th and 11th.
- Ohio State has the widest range among the human sources, from 5th in both magazines to 12th at Basket Under Review.
- Penn State is last in seven of eight rankings. CBS is the lone dissent, putting Northwestern 18th.
Blue Ribbon
- Blue Ribbon predicts the order of finish as: Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, USC, Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Rutgers, Northwestern and Penn State.
- Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. is the pick for Big Ten player of the year and Blue Ribbon’s national preseason player of the year. UCLA’s Nikola Kusturica is newcomer of the year.
- The all-conference team is Elliot Cadeau, Fears, Trey McKenney, David Mirkovic and Pryce Sandfort. Michigan is the only school with two selections.
- The top three Big Ten backcourts are Michigan State, Michigan and Illinois. The top three frontcourts are Illinois, USC and Michigan State.
- Five Big Ten players are Blue Ribbon All-Americans: Fears (first team), Mirkovic and Cadeau (second), Sandfort and McKenney (third).
- Five Big Ten teams are in the preseason top 25, topped by Florida: Illinois (No. 3), Michigan State (No. 4), Michigan (No. 12), USC (No. 22) and Ohio State (No. 24).
Lindy’s
- Lindy’s picked Illinois to win the Big Ten, followed by Michigan State, Michigan, USC, Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Rutgers, Northwestern and Penn State.
- Lindy’s ranks the Big Ten the No. 1 conference in the country and puts 11 league teams in its top 40: Illinois (No. 3), Michigan State (No. 4), Michigan (No. 10), USC (18), Ohio State (19), UCLA (22), Indiana (27), Purdue (28), Maryland (32), Iowa (34) and Nebraska (36).
- Twelve Big Ten teams are in Lindy’s projected field of 76. Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State reach the Sweet 16, with Illinois and Michigan State advancing to the Elite Eight.
- Fears and Cadeau are first-team All-Americans; Mirkovic is second team. Fears is No. 1 on the Lindy’s top 150 players list, with Cadeau No. 6, Mirkovic No. 12 and McKenney No. 49.
- Lindy’s All-Big Ten first team: Cadeau, Fears, Sandfort, Mirkovic and Kusturica. McKenney is second team with John Mobley Jr., Nolan Winter, Anthony Thompson and Pharrel Payne.
- Nationally, Lindy’s ranks Michigan’s backcourt fifth (Michigan State second, Illinois ninth) and its frontcourt 10th (USC third, Illinois fourth). J.P. Estrella is Michigan’s top newcomer.
Basket Under Review / Three Man Weave
- Basket Under Review’s Big Ten preview order is: Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, USC, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Oregon, Minnesota, Washington, Rutgers, Northwestern and Penn State.
- Michigan is fifth, the lowest of any source, behind UCLA and USC. UCLA at third is the highest anyone has the Bruins.
- Ohio State at 12th is the biggest departure from the field; no other source has the Buckeyes lower than eighth. Wisconsin (8th) and Iowa (7th) both get their best marks here.
- The site notes its conference order is one writer’s call and can differ from its aggregate Top 50, which had 12 Big Ten teams: Illinois (No. 4), Michigan State (No. 5), USC (No. 16), UCLA (No. 20), Michigan (No. 21), Purdue (No. 24), Nebraska (No. 25), Iowa (No. 28), Ohio State (No. 35), Indiana (No. 36), Wisconsin (No. 40) and Maryland (No. 41).
- The rankings don’t assume eligibility for 5-for-5 cases, which affects several Big Ten teams: Roddy Gayle Jr. (Michigan), Cade Tyson (Minnesota), Malique Ewin (Oregon), Sam Alexis (Indiana), Kenny Noland (Michigan), Tayshawn Comer (Washington) and others are all pending.
- The preview calls Penn State the worst roster in the league, and describes Rutgers’ best case as “12th or so.”
- Michigan and Illinois each place four players in 3MW’s top 100: McKenney (No. 30), Cadeau (No. 36), Thiam (No. 46) and Estrella (No. 76) for Michigan. Fears is No. 1 nationally, Mirkovic No. 11 and Sandfort No. 20.
CBS Sports
- CBS sorts the league into five tiers. Title contenders: Illinois and Michigan State. Top-25 teams: Michigan, UCLA and Indiana. Tournament teams: Nebraska, USC, Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue. Bubble: Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington and Oregon. Basement: Rutgers, Penn State and Northwestern.
- CBS is the only source with Penn State ahead of anyone (Northwestern).
- Indiana at 5th is the highest anyone ranks the Hoosiers, and Purdue at 10th is the lowest mark on the Boilermakers.
Jon Rothstein
- Twelve Big Ten teams make Rothstein’s top 45: Illinois (No. 3), Michigan State (No. 5), Michigan (No. 10), USC (No. 14), UCLA (No. 19), Purdue (No. 25), Ohio State (No. 28), Indiana (No. 29), Nebraska (No. 31), Wisconsin (No. 37), Oregon (No. 38) and Iowa (No. 40). Maryland is the notable omission.
The computers
- T-Rank has Illinois No. 6 nationally with the country’s top projected offense, Michigan State No. 10, Michigan No. 13 and Nebraska No. 15. T-Rank pegs Michigan’s returning minutes at 25.8 percent; Indiana’s 6.7 percent is the lowest in the league.
- CJH Analytics is the most bullish on Michigan: No. 8 nationally, second in the Big Ten, with the league’s best projected defense (90.2) and a 36 percent chance of a top-10 finish, second only to Illinois (58 percent) among Big Ten teams. CJH is the lowest of any source on USC (13th).
- Evan Miya has Illinois No. 3, Michigan State No. 8 and Michigan No. 15 nationally, with all 18 Big Ten teams inside his top 101. Miya’s eligibility-adjusted rank drops Michigan from No. 15 to No. 23, the biggest eligibility hit of any team in the league.
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