Bracket Watch: February 2nd, 2026

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Tony Natoci is back this year to provide bracket updates as we lead up to the NCAA Tournament. This is Tony’s ninth year as a Bracket Matrix contributor and his sixth year writing Bracket Watch columns for UM Hoops. He publishes his own bracket at Heartbreak City and will outline where Michigan stands in current bracketology models, both in his own bracket and notable national brackets, along with updates and insights about the process, key bubble games to watch, and more.

As a Michigan fan, the first three months of the 2025-26 season stack up pretty well against any of the program’s recent fast starts. There are no wrong answers here, of course, but if you asked me to rank them, I’d go like this:

1. 2013 — Record through January: 20-1 (7-1)
2. 2026 — Record through January: 20-1 (10-1)
3. 2019 — Record through January: 20-1 (9-1)
4. 2021 — Record through February: 18-1 (13-1) 

Any way you slice it, Michigan fans are having as much fun as they’ve had in years, perhaps in a decade-plus.

But as a bracketologist… I must admit, it’s been pretty quiet. Normally, the early February Bracket Watch column discusses the work that Michigan still needs to do to seal up an NCAA Tournament bid (or, in some years, to scratch its way above the bubble cutline). In a typical year, I’d point out the good and the bad, pop in a “what-if?” chart or two, and try to peer through the foggy chaos that is college basketball to project Michigan’s potential seed as a result of winning or losing a few key matchups down the stretch.

My job is much simpler this year because Michigan has been next to perfect. There has been very little chaos. Heck, at 20-1 with 15 (!) quality wins, Dusty May’s crew has already sewn up a bid to the NCAA Tournament, and U-M is all but assured of a very good seed in March Madness.

Now, don’t get me wrong, this is not a complaint. I’m more than happy to rubber-stamp Michigan’s name on the top seed line all season long, and since Thanksgiving, that’s exactly where the Wolverines have been, never falling below the fourth overall team on my seed list. But boom years for the team mean that I have to approach these columns a little differently. The standard template doesn’t apply. So sit back and relax as I walk you through just how good the Wolverines have been so far this season and what they need to do to stay atop the college basketball world.

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